Think Tanks


This week I will discuss the concept of think tanks and two methods they use.  A think tank is an organization tasked with generating and expanding ideas without restriction (Aly, 2019).  While the word “think tank” has no standardized definition within the academic community, there is consensus surrounding its purpose; the development of novel ideas to holistically solve large and complex problems to be disseminated and for application via public policy (Aly, 2019).  More simply stated, it’s a group of experts or diverse groups of thinkers brought together to think of new ideas to solve specific problems (Aly, 2019; Calongne, 2022).

 

Of course, when assembling an esteemed group of thinkers, think tanks need to identify and follow a particular methodology or technique to elicit the best and most informed ideas.  Several methods think tanks utilize to provide such structure (Aly, 2019; Calongne, 2022; Gordon, 1994).  A small sampling of these techniques includes the Delphi Method, Combining Ideas, Thinking Backward, Rapid Prototyping, and the Nominal Group Technique (Aly, 2019; Calongne, 2022; Gordon, 1994).  For this discussion, I will discuss two of my favorites from my research, the Delphi Method and the Thinking Backward method.

 

The Delphi Method

 

The Delphi Method was aptly named as a reference to the Greek Oracle at Delphi, who supposedly foretold the future (Gordon, 1994).  The Delphi Method was developed by researchers at the RAND Corporation, a Santa Monica, California, in the early 1960s (Gordon, 1994).  The underpinnings of the method acknowledge that the psychology of the social interactions between esteemed experts in a group setting might prohibit the generation of novel ideas (Gordon, 1994).  For example, they failed to discuss a picture within a group for fear of being called “crazy” or being ostracized from the group (Gordon, 1994).

 

To ensure the researchers can elicit the best ideas from their experts, the Delphi Method prescribes a multi-questionnaire process ensuring anonymity (Gordon, 1994).  The use of multiple questionnaires to derive an “evolving group consensus” makes the Delphi Method a form of “controlled debate” (Gordon, 1994).  The questionnaires begin by obtaining broad perspectives that identify fringe perspectives (Gordon, 1994).  These fringe perspectives are essential as they often identify perspectives the collective group may not have considered (Gordon, 1994).  Subsequent rounds request a defense of these fringe perspectives and the group’s perspectives on them, ultimately leading to a consensus amongst the group.

 

The Backward Planning Technique

 

The Backward Planning Technique, as the name suggests, is a method that begins with the end goal, or objective, in mind (Michael & Libarkin, 2016).  This technique is frequently and efficiently used within the field of education (Michael & Libarkin, 2016).  For example, a think tank focused on education may seek to increase the participation and effectiveness of STEM within K-12 school systems.  Under this technique, experts generate ideas on how to move from the current state to the desired state (Michael & Libarkin, 2016).  As a result, the Backward Planning Technique is a practical approach to developing tactical methods to achieve the desired outcome.

 

References 

 

Aly, D. O. (2019, 7/6/2019). Think tank methods. Think and Knowledge Tank. https://thinkandknowledgetank.home.blog/2019/07/06/think-tank-methods-3/

 

Calongne, C. (2022). CS 875 Week 3a Think tanks August - Oct 2022. https://studentlogin.coloradotech.edu/UnifiedPortal/DiscussionBoard/?ssid=3&c=6&cid=274895&aid=2447297&oa=1&ver=20220317#/db

 

Gordon, T. J. (1994). The Delphi method. Futures research methodology, 2(3), 1-30.

 

Michael, N. A., & Libarkin, J. C. (2016). Understanding by Design: Mentored implementation of backward design methodology at the university level. Bioscience: Journal of College Biology Teaching, 42(2), 44-52. https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1126353.pdf

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